Net Zero South Wales - Cross Vector Scenarios

Objective(s)

1. Develop a process and methodology by which both gas and electricity network operators can conduct local level joint scenario planning in a region or licence area. This would include identifying shared definitions and building shared operational understanding, geographical areas, approaches to assessing the evolution of energy generation and supply, along with changes in demand and flexibility.

2. Understand the impacts of a set of net zero carbon pathways on the distribution network, within a single licence area.

Problem(s)

The UK energy system is going through a significant transition as it moves towards a more decentralised and net-zero carbon energy system. Renewable and other low-carbon technologies are expected to dominate the future system, which will also feature widespread “smarter” new technologies.

Already the growth of decentralised electricity generation has led to local and regional network constraints, meaning electricity network operators have needed to become more proactive and sophisticated in how they plan for, and manage, future network connections.

In 2019, the UK government legislated to commit to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This landmark legislation is a significant increase from the 80% commitment made in the original Climate Change Act. It will require a far faster and deeper transformation than previously anticipated, and has implications for how distribution scenario processes are conducted, increasing the need for cross-vector planning and solutions.

Although the future will be increasingly multi-vector, there is no defined or inherent process for cross-vector network planning at licence area and local level. For example, network and geographical areas used in single vector planning do not currently align as they are conceived to address specific network infrastructure and operation in gas and electricity. There is currently no detailed understanding of the net zero implications on energy networks at a licence area and distribution network level, including understanding the uncertainties and interaction between multi-vector technologies (such as hydrogen).

Method(s)

The project comprises of five stages:

Stage 1: Project clarification and baseline/pipeline data collation.

Stage 2: Extend and harmonise South Wales projection models.

Stage 3: Frame a high-level UK net-zero 2050 scenario.

Stage 4: Model net zero outcomes in South Wales to 2050.

Stage 5: Distribute net-zero sensitivity pathways geographically.

• Scope

  Undertaking this assessment will:

  • Provide WPD and WWU with a shared view of bottom-up and evidenced-based forecasts to inform their long-term investment planning.
  • Enhance WPD and WWU’s ability to identify likely future hotspots and pinch points within their networks, thus highlighting their key areas for network investment.
  • Provide a basis to analyse the impact of changes in demand and supply on both the gas and electricity networks at a more granular level.
  • Enable a better shared understanding of the likely impact of cross-vector disruptive technologies and sources of supply, including electric vehicles, alternative heating supply technologies (e.g. heat pumps), hydrogen blending/networks and bio methane.
  • Provide evidence that WPD and WWU’s network forecasting and investment planning are aligned with:
    • Different net zero pathways, and adaptive to the impacts of decarbonisation.
    • South Wales regional and local development and infrastructure priorities, specifically regional and local city region authorities and LEPs.
    • Welsh Government’s objectives and policy priorities around energy supply, domestic and commercial energy use and decarbonisation.
  • The methodology and learning in this analysis will also influence and improve future energy scenarios produced for other distribution networks, and lead to better investment outcomes for consumers.
• Success criteria

  The project will be successful if:

  • It produces learning about the operation and network impact of cross-vector technologies. This will be evidenced through a net-zero cross vector methodology that will be developed through the project and disseminated to other GDNOs and DNOs; and
  • The results of the analysis, the dataset and companion report, are used to inform National Grid’s transmission and distribution study in South Wales.
• Potential for new learning

  The methodology developed in this analysis will help improve the development and use of future net-zero cross vector energy scenarios produced for WPD, WWU and other networks. This will lead to more effective planning process for future network investment. Specifically, this process will support:

  • Decarbonisation and planning for net-zero for distribution networks – it will in particular support improved network planning for technologies with a cross vector impact such as hybrid heat pumps.
  • Efficient and effective scenario processes – a key impact would be to update the methodologies currently used for distribution scenario processes, to allow the outputs from these studies to be utilised by other stakeholders in addition to gas and electricity networks.
• Documents and links

  Registration Form

  Project Registration and PEA Document

  Project Closedown Report

  Data Report

  Learning Report 

  Dataset 

• Monthly updates

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